A New Definition of Probability

1 Emergence of Probability in Europe

2 A New Concept of Probability:

Probability extinguished after occurrence of event
50% probability changes to 100% or 0%

3 Conjectural Probability

3.1 “Fair” Coin

3.2 Equal Skill in a Game

3.3 Drug Versus Placebo

3.4 Drawing Straws:

3.5 Independence and ESP

3.6 The Vietnam Draft Lottery

4 The Bayes Rule

Sequential draws from urn with 2 White 1 Black ball

5 CONCLUDING REMARKS

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